(Article courtesy of the Sporting Post- This piece was composed before the Gr1 Fillies Classic win of Judpot’s daughter Juxtapose. We’ve left it as is, though, as the background to the story remains valid)
Great stallions are measured by Gr1 winners. Most countries have a very limited number of Gr1 races in any given year, so that winning Gr1 remains an exceptional achievement. Even the very best stallions have less than two dozen or so in a lifetime career.
In South Africa, last year’s champion sire Captain Al presently averages one Gr1 winner per crop. So does Dynasty. Before, the outstanding perennial champion Jet Master averaged two per crop. Silvano and Western Winter hover close to the two-per-crop mark.
So when Judpot hit the jackpot with two first-crop 2yo Gr1 winners in July 2013, that achievement was noteworthy indeed. Statistically the expectation had to be that either he was another Jet Master, or that a few crops might pass by before Judpot had another Gr1 winner. Common sense suggested the latter, but many breeders opted for the first. The 2013 breeding season started 2 months after the Gr1 winners emerged and Judpot covered more than 125 mares. This in contrast to the thirty Judpot 2013-foals being born during the same months.
Subsequent crops
Forest Indigo
It is now almost 3 years on from the first two Gr1 wins by Along Came Polly and Forest Indigo in July 2013. Along Came Polly scored another Gr1 win as a 3yo before being sold to the USA. Judpot came close with his second crop, with SA Derby runner-up and SA Classic 3rd Deputy Jud, and Double Whammy, who placed in the Gr1 Fillies Guineas.
But right now the tally still stands at two from 3 crops. And it needs a miracle to get a 4th crop Gr1 winner from Judpot’s very small current 2yo crop born in 2013.
Yet statistically speaking, now’s the time for buyers to strike.
Here’s why.
Along Came Polly
Judpot’s two first-crop Gr1 winners were no fluke – one repeated Gr1 a year later, and he had two Gr1 placed the next crop, colts and fillies both years.
It is reasonable to expect then that he’ll average at least one Gr1 winner per crop over time.
Since he’s likely to still be 2 from 4 crops this year, Judpot’s next crops should yield bountiful harvests.
That starts with the large crop born in 2014, which in addition had better quality mares than he’d seen before.
That large crop hits the yearling sales this year, meaning competition for sellers, real choice for buyers, and Gr1 in the wings for Judpot – who for buyers still has a thing or two to prove.
It’s a funny old game, this.
(The Gr1 Fillies Classic win brought Judpot’s tally to 3 from his first 3 crops. That should have buyers reaching for the chequebooks – Judpot might still be another Jet Master!).
See what he has on offer at www.tba.co.za